Natural disasters can greatly impact a supply chain by sending it to a halt. When earthquakes occur, supply chain specialists need to know how to respond and be proactive prior to the earthquake. But if an earthquake is a natural disaster, how is it accurately predicted? To predict an earthquake, a scientific-detailed model is used to forecast the natural disaster.
First, the model needs the most current, up-to-date geological and seismological data. In addition, historical patterns must be examined as well as major fault lines. From here, these results include the degree of earthquake magnitudes and its effect on the land. These results can greatly impact supply chain decisions such as where to locate a facility (obviously-not on a major fault line!), and if products are expensive-don't locate a warehouse in a high-risk earthquake area. Although, many may think a computerized earthquake model is irrelevant, it can greatly affect any business decision. As a result, a simulation model should include forecast models for earthquakes so that businesses can maintain a resilient supply chain.
References
Bowles, Jennifer. California Earthquake Probability Study Rejiggers Inland Causes for Concerns. 15 April, 2008. ARN. Retrieved April 15, 2008 from http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=3961439252729962199&postID=4748261664757262560.
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2 comments:
It's kind of a coincidence, I wrote this blog before the earthquakes struck on Friday...
That is a little spooky that you selected this topic on that day! Perhaps you can go into the earthquake forecasting business!
But, seriously, let's think about some of the factors that impact your model. Yes, the fault line and even the severity of the fault line are important. But, don't you think you need to consider the frequency of the earthquakes in the region? After all, the largest fault line in the country is the New Madrid fault. But, it hasn't had a quake since 1811. So, do you locate near it or not? What did Walmart decide?
Another factor that you can consider are "pre-shocks" and their reliability. Some are concerned that these "after shocks" we are having are really "pre shocks" for a big one.
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